Navigating A Path to Victory in VA-82

Two weeks ago, voters across Virginia turned out to cast their ballots for state and local candidates. In Virginia’s 82nd State House District, the election was decided by only 78 votes--less than three-tenths of a percent.

Deep Root Analytics partnered with JLK Political, Content Creative, and Medium Buying to build and execute a winning strategy that successfully protected a one-term Republican incumbent running in a district that Biden carried by 11-points.

Our team has drafted a case study identifying the challenges, opportunities, and takeaways from this election and we’d like to share that with you.
 
Excerpt from Case Study

VA House District 82 After Action Report

In Virginia’s 2023 state legislative elections, Deep Root partnered with JLK Political, Content Creative, and Medium Buying to build a winning strategy for Virginia’s 82nd State House District in which the Republican incumbent candidate successfully navigated to an electoral victory with a margin of 78 votes—less than three-tenths of a percent over her Democrat challenger.

This strategy involved effective targeting, audience activations, strategic media placement, and message discipline.
 
VA HD-82 District Profile

Virginia’s 82nd State House District encompasses Petersburg City, Dinwiddie County, Prince George County, and Surry County. Making up a total of roughly 64-thousand registered voters in the district.

Governor Glenn Youngkin won this district by 2% in his 2021 election and the latest data modeling conducted by Deep Root Analytics shows that Democrats enjoy a 16% advantage in party preference and a 14% advantage in net ballot projections. 
 
So how can we leverage political data and predictive analytics to best prepare and plan our political efforts?